Top Line: An oversupply of radiation oncologists has been widely bemoaned for years.
The Study: To do its best to objectively assess the situation, ASTRO convened a task force which hired Health Managements Associates to conduct an independent analysis that is now out with this accompanying summary. Very long story short, most scenarios are compatible with a pretty good balance of supply (rad oncs) and demand (work RVUs). As with any modeling, there are countless ways this all may not pan out to reflect reality, but the most likely reasons cited for the scales to tip towards an oversupply would be an increased concentration of RVUs per rad onc or a continued increase in the number of practicing rad onc past 2030 when the increase in Medicare beneficiaries is estimated to slow. The first stipulation is interesting and reflects an already emerging trend of physicians feeling pressure to ramp up individual RVU production due to continued cuts in reimbursement amidst a period of national inflation. One thing we didn’t see mentioned is the ever-looming…dun dun dun…RO-APM that might lead to a change in the number of treatments per patient with bundled payments for things like breast and prostate cancers. In any case, this is far from a case closed situation and fortunately the report includes an excel tool to continue the modeling as new information emerges.
TBL: With currently available information used in modeling through 2030, an an independent analysis has concluded the most likely scenario is that the radiation oncology workforce supply meets demand for its services as an increase in Medicare beneficiaries offsets the small steady increase in practicing physicians as well as the largely uncertain decrease in the number of treatments provided per patient. | Shah, Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys 2023
The Study: To do its best to objectively assess the situation, ASTRO convened a task force which hired Health Managements Associates to conduct an independent analysis that is now out with this accompanying summary. Very long story short, most scenarios are compatible with a pretty good balance of supply (rad oncs) and demand (work RVUs). As with any modeling, there are countless ways this all may not pan out to reflect reality, but the most likely reasons cited for the scales to tip towards an oversupply would be an increased concentration of RVUs per rad onc or a continued increase in the number of practicing rad onc past 2030 when the increase in Medicare beneficiaries is estimated to slow. The first stipulation is interesting and reflects an already emerging trend of physicians feeling pressure to ramp up individual RVU production due to continued cuts in reimbursement amidst a period of national inflation. One thing we didn’t see mentioned is the ever-looming…dun dun dun…RO-APM that might lead to a change in the number of treatments per patient with bundled payments for things like breast and prostate cancers. In any case, this is far from a case closed situation and fortunately the report includes an excel tool to continue the modeling as new information emerges.
TBL: With currently available information used in modeling through 2030, an an independent analysis has concluded the most likely scenario is that the radiation oncology workforce supply meets demand for its services as an increase in Medicare beneficiaries offsets the small steady increase in practicing physicians as well as the largely uncertain decrease in the number of treatments provided per patient. | Shah, Int J Radiat Oncol Biol Phys 2023